Wednesday, November 27, 2019

It is time to drive an electric vehicle (EV)



...not to buy it


Jay Leno driving his Baker Electric, which is 100+ years old


To drive…

1.     The experience of driving an EV is excellent
2.     There is now sufficient variety of EVs being offered (between pure EV and PHEV)
3.     Range anxiety is almost over
4.     There are exclusive benefits for EVs in most large cities
5.     The running costs of an EV are much cheaper than those of equivalent ICEs

…not to buy

1.     High volatility of residual values.
2.     Current EVs may age rapidly
3.     Current local benefits of driving an EV will gradually dissapear
4.     Taxes on EVs will increase.


We are living fascinating times for the automotive industry.  We are witnessing a transition from internal combustion engines (ICEs) to electric engines as the means of providing power to move our vehicles.  As in any shift in technology, it is difficult to decide when to make the switch.  In this article I will try to give you the fundamental reasons why the time has come for most of us to drive an electric car.  I will also recommend not buying those electric cars (leasing them will be preferred).

1.     The experience of driving an EV is excellent.

After more than a century of driving cars with an internal combustion engine (ICE), we have learned to live with its intrinsic characteristics of noise, vibration and uneven power delivery.  And, of course, the emissions of unhealthy rejects into the atmosphere.  In fact, those of us who are passionate about cars, tend to admire the “good” noise that some of those engines emit, love using the gear-change to keep the engine at its optimum revs and basically ignore all the pollution generated while running.

When driving a car with an electric engine, we suddenly realise that we were just sticking to a flawed way of providing mobility because we had not tried alternatives.  If you have time, you can read my previous article on what to expect when switching from an ICE driven car to one with an electric engine (EV)[1], where I try to summarise all the things that may change in your driving experience.

It is just a plain superior reality in so many ways that you may wonder why you did not try it earlier.  The magical silence and lack of vibration while running is immediately noticeable.  Not feeling the annoying stop/start of the engine in the city is a welcome gain.  And the unstressed linear acceleration an added bonus. Of course, knowing that you are not producing pollution while running is the ultimate benefit, not only to you, but to everyone.  I cannot stress it enough, please try it and hopefully you will agree with me.

2.     There is now sufficient variety of EVs (and PHEVs) being offered

Up to very recently, the number of EVs on offer was very limited and their cost too high.  A new technology that had to compete with the 20th century wonder of mass production, the ICE car, has faced logical challenges in order to provide a viable alternative.  The electric engine in an EV is not a technical or cost challenge, but the means of providing energy to that engine is a different story.  The batteries in an EV are by far the single largest source of cost and added bulk.

With continuously decreasing cost of batteries due to extensive research and mass manufacturing, we are reaching the point where it is economically feasible to offer a mass-produced electric car at competitive prices.

The shift to a new drivetrain technology, a fundamental change for car manufacturers, is an opportunity with high risks for the incumbents.  Up to last year, the choice of EVs on the market was very limited.  However, most traditional manufacturers are now launching EVs and have many electric models in their pipeline.  From a handful of available models, we are quickly seeing a variety of new offers entering the market in many different segments.  We are far from the myriad options of sizes, shapes, trims and engine configurations offered in the very mature ICE market. Available EVs, however, are quickly multiplying, giving drivers a reasonable variety of choice. 

In fact, in addition to pure electric cars (which only have an electric engine), there are many plug-in hybrid electric cars (PHEVs), which add an electric engine to a traditional IC engine, complementing it, not replacing it. These PHEVs combine both engines in an effort to supplement the virtues of electric driving with the long range driving capabilities of gas power.  I mention them because they are clearly bridging the gap between ICEs and EVs in this transition times. 

You can look at PHEVs as an expensive transition format, combining the cost of both engines and their accessories, the added weight and achieving limited benefits in terms of the pure electric driving experience.  I prefer to value them for helping to smooth the transition to the new electric technology for both manufacturers and drivers.  There are many of them on offer now, almost every manufacturer includes them in their range.  And most provide significant electric only range (in excess of 40 kmts on a full charge) that can cover the majority of commuting habits.

Whatever your requirements in terms of size and usage, you should be able to find a suitable EV or PHEV alternative to make the jump towards the new world of electric mobility!

3.      Range anxiety is almost over

The traditional weakness of electric cars has been their limited range on a full charge, combined with the long charging times and small number of public charging points.  Those three factors produced what has been called “range anxiety”, or the permanent worry about the need to plan your recharges in order to be able to reach your destination, especially in long trips.

Conditions are quickly changing, to the point of making range anxiety almost irrelevant.

First, for purely electric vehicles, the ranges achievable with a full battery are increasing with every new model.  Most EVs can now travel more than 300 kmts without recharging.  And, in many cases, the same vehicle is being offered with different battery sizes (and related costs and range) to give customers a broader choice.

Second, the network of recharging points is quickly being developed in many countries.  The most advanced ones in EV adoption, like Norway and The Netherlands, already offer sufficient density of public charging alternatives.

Third, the recharging times are diminishing quickly, as the combination of factors determining them is carefully optimized[2].  Nowadays, with modern chargers and battery technology, some new models are able to recharge at rates of up to 300 kilometers in 15 minutes[3].

Last, if all of the above does not offer customers full peace of mind, there is always the alternative of driving a PHEV, which combine limited electric range that is suited to most commutes and city drives with the long range and no anxiety associated with traditional ICE driven cars.

4.     There are exclusive benefits for EVs (and some PHEVs) in many large cities

Councils are trying hard to clean the air in their cities and one of the biggest sources of pollution is ICE vehicles.  In order to accelerate the transition to cleaner mobility, many large cities are offering advantages to drivers of electric vehicles.  Among the typical ones we count: free parking in regulated areas, free circulation in congestion controlled zones where ICE vehicles are not allowed or asked to pay a circulation fee, free usage of special bus or congestion free lanes, lower (or no) annual taxes.

Most of them are real tangible benefits that will make using an EV (or equivalently treated PHEV) an advantageous proposition beyond the already explained surprisingly improved driving experience.

5.     The energy cost for running an EV is much cheaper than in a fuel burning car

This is the biggest advantage from a cost perspective.  As with ICE cars, the electricity consumption of an EV depends on many variables.  And it will gradually improve over time, as manufacturers learn to optimize them.  But most EVs can now run 100 kmts on 20 kw/h of energy.  The cost of electricity will vary greatly from one region to another but, in most countries, it will be below 20 cents per kw/h.  With those numbers, the electricity cost for an EV over 100 kmts would be around 4 euros.  That would be the equivalent, depending on the fuel cost per country, of around 2/3 liters of fuel.

Numbers will vary greatly per EV model and per country, but in all cases the cost of electricity will be far lower than the fuel cost of an equivalent ICE vehicle.  That is a real economic advantage that you can enjoy on top of the other benefits of driving an electric vehicle.


These are very strong arguments for anyone to consider driving an EV or an PHEV, however, there are also significant reasons to recommend not buying it, but leasing it or searching for any form of usership where the driver does not take the risk of keeping the car after 3 to 5 years…

The reasons for this recommendation are:

1.     High volatility of residual values. 

For EVs (and a bit less for PHEVs), we are beginning to enjoy the benefits of high R&D expenditure and mass production.  We can see it in the rapidly decreasing cost of buying them, and also on the radical increase in performance that we get on the newer models compared to older ones[4].  Although the speed of improvement will logically decrease over time, we can still expect significant advances in technology for future EVs, which will have an impact on the residual value of existing ones in the future.

2.     Current EVs may age rapidly

Another effect of the speed of technological improvements on EVs is that older models quickly loose some appeal when compared to what is offered on newer ones.  For ICEs, using a car during 10+ years will not generate in the driver a feeling of great obsolescence, as long as the car is properly maintained.  In the current generation of EVs, that may not be the case.  Traditional car manufacturers have just started to dedicate large amounts to the development of electric vehicles.  The pay-off of those substantial investments is going to appear incrementally in the new EVs to be released in the years to come.  We will probably be able to access EVs that show longer range, are more efficient and less expensive than the current equivalent ones.

My personal impression is that the latest EVs offer compelling benefits to make the jump to the new technology now.  But being aware that, in 3 to 5 years, there will probably be really improved models, with so many new features available that upgrading to them will seem like a must.  Think about the first smartphones available in 2007 and how quickly newer models were providing the user with more benefits.  We will experience something similar with current EVs. They are revolutionary, a must drive, but will become obsolete in the near future when the newer ones are launched.

3.      Current local benefits of driving an EV will gradually disappear.

Some of those benefits previously described, like free parking or free usage of restricted lanes, are naturally going to be limited in time.  As more people make the switch to EVs or PHEVs, the incentives given to early adoption will stop making sense. 

Imagine regulated parking in a city, where allocation of a limited resource (parking spaces on the street) is managed by putting a price on it and restricting the total time that it can be used.  As a greater number of vehicles enjoy benefits, the resource becomes less usable and the income stream for municipalities decreases.  The natural move is to gradually remove those advantages for early adopters of clean cars as the total number of them increases.

This is another reason to avoid buying an EV/PHEV at this time, since the desirability of its usage (and the demand for it) in the future can be more volatile, depending on the privileges that it still enjoys when used.

4.     Taxes on electric vehicles will increase        

Another natural evolution that we can expect as the number of EVs on the roads increases and become significant is the creation of new taxes.  All administrations have come to rely on significant income derived from cars.  Taxes upon purchasing, yearly road licensing and, most of all, taxes on fuel.  The last ones represent a significant income for most administrations (up to 5% of total income).  It will obviously take some time to shift all cars on the road to the new electric drivetrains.  But regulators will see their tax income from ICE vehicles decrease and will probably react by creating new taxes on the EVs to compensate their income[5].


Conclusion


We are currently in what I would identify as the sweet spot, the right time, to start using an EV.  As explained, it is a fantastic driving experience, to move smoothly, without generating air or noise pollution. The technology is reliable, the drawbacks of limited range and need to recharge are quickly diminishing.  The running costs are lower.  And there are significant exclusive benefits in yearly taxes and parking/road usage. 

However, the environment is still evolving quickly.  Battery technology will continue improving and will make the next generation of EVs significantly more appealing than the existing ones.  And some of the current advantages, usage privileges, and taxes treatment may change in the near future. 

Therefore, the logical choice, is to drive an EV, but not to own it yet, since in 3/5 years circumstances may change and force us to revisit the decision.

But I invite you to make that change and start enjoying the world of EVs!






[1] “Switching from ICEs to electric, goodbyes and hellos”, published in my blog, blog.jr-aboutcars.com
[2] The speed of transfer of electricity to the car battery depends on many factors and changes frequently.  The output power capacity of the charging station is one.  But the maximum input power capacity of the battery is another.  The latter also fluctuates with conditions of the battery, like temperature and charge level. 

[3] Tesla model 3 can recharge at that rate on their proprietary Tesla Superchargers 3.0 (250KW)
[4] The most important element of improvement is the battery, where we are benefiting from increased capacities with similar bulk, weight and cost, allowing newer EVs to offer longer driving ranges.  An  additional benefit in newer EVs is the capacity to charge batteries faster.
[5] To be fair, the speed of this change may be slower than the 3 to 5 year window that I refer to in the rest of the article.  Replacement of the existing cars on the road with EVs will take much longer and the decrease in tax income may not be felt so quickly.  However, regulators tend to be very creative when introducing new taxing figures and can try to anticipate those decreases in fuel tax income in advance.

Wednesday, September 11, 2019

10 gimmicks of modern cars


What are your favorite gimmicks of modern cars?


A lovely old VW transporter Type 2, the ultimate car for hippies of the 60s, no gimmicks!


When I was a kid in the seventies, I remember traveling in a Renault 20 of my parent´s friend and being infatuated with the electric windows in the back seat where I was riding.  They were such a novelty at the time, that I kept opening and closing the window all the trip (maybe that is the origin of the canceling switch for rear usage of electric windows…).

Cars have evolved gradually from being a mere mode of transportation (still their primary function) to becoming a cocoon of comfort in which we can spend hours driving or riding without experiencing fatigue, while still connected to the outside world. 

In that transition, car manufacturers have continuously added functionality and amenities to our vehicles and we are reaching a point where many of them are just, in my opinion, over the top.

I definitely believe that central locking, electric windows and climate control with air conditioning are must haves in any car.  But beyond those, there has been a proliferation of features that fall more in the category of gimmicks than of solving a real need.

I have come up with ten of them.  And I must say that I do love a few.  But they can all be catalogued as superfluous and not needed in 99% of the time you are spending in a car.  Here is my choice:

1.      Umbrella incorporated inside the door.  A feature that is shared by two very different brands.  Rolls Royce and Skoda both offer them in some of their vehicles, and I don´t know if any other manufacturers include it.  When you open the door in a rainy day, you can pull out an umbrella located inside it.  Yes, you can solve that uncomfortable moment of getting wet stepping out of your car. But, how long will it take for that umbrella (custom made for that hole on the door) to be forgotten somewhere, like umbrellas usually do?  I always carry one in the trunk of my cars and I have never missed having it in the door. But it solves a rare uncomfortable possibility
2.     Heated steering wheel. Now available as an option in most middle to high end models.  When starting up your car in a very cold morning, you can turn on your heater, your heated seats and your heated steering wheel, so that no part of your body has to sustain the rigors of winter for more than a few seconds.  What´s next?  Heated window switches and volume nobs? Most steering wheels nowadays are wrapped on leather or an artificial material of similar touch that are not good conductors of heat/cold.  Which means that they will quickly warm up to the body temperature of your hands.  Try grabbing a metal gearshift on a very cold day (like the lovely aluminum one on some Peugeots) and you will be able to tell the difference.  Your bare hand instantly suffers the great conduction of cold from the metal.  I have never turned the heated steering wheel on, not even in the coldest days, and I have never missed it!
3.     Soft closing doors. A mechanism first seen in upscale sedans, which would take care of the final closing of the door if the inertia of the push was not enough for a full one.  A total overkill.  It has been a long time since manufacturers solve the two risks of an unproperly closed door.  An inadvertent opening on the road or an easy burglar entry into the car.  Most of us have grown the habit of learning the push needed to properly close our car doors.  Incorporating a small electrical engine in each door, together with its sensors and electronics seems like a really superfluous gimmick that just adds weight and unnecessary complication to our cars.
4.     Second sun visor. An additional sun visor that allows the driver to cover both front and side view from sun blinding.  I must say that I tend to like this one.  On the rare occasions when you are driving against a low sun and the road is twisty, you will find the uncomfortable excessive light blinding you from the front and from your side on a continuous switching mode. With only one sun visor, you will have to be moving it front to side endlessly. This is a feature that I really enjoy and have used many times.  Plus, it is not a significant source of cost or complication in the car, so welcome double sun visors.
5.     Massage seats. I personally prefer a good ergonomic seat, that has the right level of cushioning (not too soft, not too hard), and which most manufacturers nowadays offer.  I understand heated seats, they provide immediate comfort in cold weather starts.  I can stretch myself to understand ventilating seats.  After all, we tend to sweat the back of our shirt on warm days when seating for a long time.  But massage seats, really?  It feels like the car version of the “easychair” for watching TV, which incorporates all possible movements and massages.  A feature that I have never used in a car and which I find truly superfluous.
6.     Auto dimming rear view mirror/s. This is one of my favorites and one which I always try to include in the cars I drive.  I know, all rearview mirrors nowadays include a manual knob that can be pushed or twisted to put into view a second darker mirror that will help avoid being shined by the headlights of cars driving behind us in the dark.  But the feature does not really work for me. Yes, It becomes darker and absorbs some of that shining light.  But in the process, you get to see the images on the two mirrors that are encased, and you lose clarity on the view of the image behind you.  Plus, the manual feature is not available for the side mirrors, which can also direct strong reflecting light to your eyes.  Automatic dimming mirrors is a superfluous feature, but one that I truly appreciate, and which provides an additional safety to the driving experience.
7.     Door protectors. A partial solution to an everyday problem for cars driving in cities.  When parked side to side, people tend to hit the car on the side with the door when opening it.  This creates a myriad small dents in the side and the edge of doors in any city car. Citröen has lately created some “air bumps”, soft plastic attachments on the side of the doors that absorb most of the dents.  And Skoda, in some of its models, includes an even better solution.  A small plastic piece that folds out with an easy mechanical trick and covers the edge of the door when it opens, so that it does not leave a dent if it hits other cars.  And it hides away when the door is closed again, so it does not alter the aesthetics of the car.  Quite a neat solution I must say.
8.     Reversing trace my steps memory. A very recent one, launched by BMW in some of its models.  When reversing, the driver can select if he wants the car to steer autonomously in order to mimic the last movement of the car when going forward.  Imagine a tight garage in which you are forced to reverse because there is another car in your way and not space for the two of them. Or parking in a tight space after maneuvering around some nasty cement columns.  On paper it is impressive, especially when you see that car´s steering wheel working on its own while you gradually reverse back your steps.  In practice, there are very few situations in which you will find it helpful.  To me, a fantastic tour de force that will rarely be used.
9.     Dual view infotainment screens. Made most popular by Land Rover as an option in some of their models. It allows the screen to display a different view for the driver and the front passenger at the same time.  The driver may be looking at the navigation map while the passenger watches a movie.  It seems like the perfect solution for the need to keep the driver alert, while the passenger can fill up the trip time with some entertainment on the central screen. In reality, a flawed solution that is very rarely used.  Flawed because the way it is technically done is by devoting half of the screen´s pixels to the driver and half to the passenger.  In essence, the resolution of the screen is cut in half for both of them. At the time it was first implemented, that smaller resolution was clearly noticeable and a bit distracting.  And, in any case, I have rarely seen a front passenger that is watching some entertainment during a trip.  Back seat passengers are more enclosed inside the car and can enjoy some movies or videogames while riding.  A solution that many parents have really embraced, and which is now quite affordable with tablets. But the front passenger is exposed in full to the distraction of the road and the screen is located to his/her left, so looking at it for a long time would probably cause neck pain and sea sickness.  
10.  Gesture control. A few BMW and VW cars have incorporated a feature that allows the driver to control some functions of the infotainment system using had gestures.  For example, skipping to the next track or stored station by swiping your hand in front of the screen from left to right.  I do not find this feature specially useful. First of all, it lack precision.  I have tried it, and it is quite easy to have the system interpreting a command when you are just moving or gesturing normally inside the car.  Secondly, they do require the driver to take his right hand off the wheel and make those gestures in an exaggerated format, with some distraction involved.  I love steering wheel controls.  They really provide the balance of basic functionality (nowadays becoming quite extensive), and easy accessibility without taking your hands off the wheel and with minimum distraction.  But gesture controls, I find to be quite a useless gimmick.

As you can see, I find some of those features useful, while others seem to me like complete overkill.  I would love to hear your opinion on this topic.  

Which is your favorite superfluous feature of modern cars?  


About the author:  Jaime Requeijo has been a car lover most of his life.  As a business executive, he has been lucky to combine his passion with work in companies like Peugeot and LeasePlan.  Now he enjoys giving advice on mobility as a consultant and writing about his favorite car topics.

Disclaimer:  This article is not meant to be a technical paper.  Its purpose is to entertain and to inform people about the some of the features that are available to people riding in cars.  When mentioning technical aspect, I have tried to do adequate research and careful statement of facts.  I may have made some wrong technological assumptions or imperfect explanations. If that were the case, my apologies.  Please feel free to contact me if you can help me improve the accuracy of the article. (jaime.requeijo@gmail.com).  Thank you for reading it.  I hope you enjoyed it as much as I did writing it!